Mike Cassell: Mayweather will LOSE May 2nd
Boxing NAV’s Mike Cassell puts together his case as to why “Money” will taste defeat in Saturday’s mega fight.
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On January 22nd 1973, “smoking” undefeated Joe Frazier faced undefeated George Foreman in Kingston Jamaica. The fight went only about two rounds, with Foreman dropping Frazier a total of six times in round one and two.
It was an embarrassing loss for Frazier who had just recently beat the greatest of all time Muhammad Ali, who was undefeated at the time. How could Frazier get dropped six times against George Foreman, but give Ali real problems?
The answer is simple.
Styles make fights. It was that way a hundred years ago, and it has never changed. Floyd Mayweather Jr (47 – 0, 26 KO’s) is the best fighter in this known galaxy, but he is going to lose May 2nd, and here are the reasons why.
Although fans like to make this fight personal, it is all just business. And when you see it through a trainer’s eye, it really isn’t rocket science; it’s just the sweet science of deduction. Styles make fights, and this one is very bad for the money team.
The Styles
If you wanted to describe Floyd Mayweather Jr’s style, you could say he is like a perfect orchestra playing the most beautiful concerto. The timing and rhythm is just perfect, in sync, with all of his moves being sharply executed and directed on the canvas, the way a master conductor brings everything together to make a masterpiece.
It’s really a beautiful thing, as long as everybody goes along with the music and follows the score. Mayweather is very good at making fighters follow his rhythm, and his timing. In almost all cases Floyd gets you before you know you’re gotten, and you left trying to make up eight rounds when you only have three rounds left.
The problem for Mayweather, is that Manny Pacquiao (57-5, 38 KO’s) is not like him at all.
Pacquiao is not a beautiful orchestra. He is more like a mix between Guns and Roses and Metallica. His rhythm is inconsistent and offsetting.
He can be wild and careless, which in most fighters can be a detriment, but for Manny it’s actually a very good thing. His style is loud and obnoxious, ruining the subtle beauty of Mayweather’s beautifully timed arrangement.
Mayweather’s first loss and the styles that exposed him
In 2002, Mayweather was a young star on the rise when he moved up to face rugged veteran and world champion Jose Luis Castillo.
Castillo a world champion caliber fighter with over 49 fights, took the fight to Mayweather like never before. Most ringside easily saw the fight for the veteran, who consistently brought pressure to the young star, landing a 177 power punches, and throwing 377, giving him an incredible 46% landing percentage. Mayweather landed just 66 out of 151 thrown.
Mayweather clearly lost this fight and was handled by Castillo. Even though the judge’s ringside gave Mayweather a clear victory, knowledgeable boxing people saw the crack in the Mayweather code.
In 2004 Mayweather Fought Demarcus Corley in a fight that saw Mayweather drop Corley in the 8th and 10th round, but again, Mayweather showed cracks in the amour against the southpaw in the early rounds. He was able to hit Mayweather in space.
Zab Judah must have watched both of those fights because in 2006 he gave Mayweather a very hard time in the early going of their 12 round affairs. Judah landed hard straight left hands easily throughout the early rounds of their battle.
Judah was ahead at a time on the score cards, but could not maintain that attack for 12 rounds and Mayweather finally got Judah to dance to his tune, while cruising to another unanimous decision victory.
Floyd Mayweather Jr is a counter puncher. He allows you to get off one so he can land three or five. He will box you for six rounds, allowing you to use a tremendous amount of energy. When a fighter gets tired what they do well diminishes and what they do badly completely disappears.
It was apparent watching Marcos Maidana and Canelo Alvarez fall all over ring when trying to hit Floyd in the later rounds of their match-ups. They weren’t bad, they were just exhausted.
That’s true with anyone, except Floyd Mayweather. He does not get tired. He waits, takes a few, and then finishes you in a most consistent fashion in the later rounds.
Mayweather is the most consistent fighter in the world right now, and that’s why he is going to lose May 2nd, and he is going to lose big. Mayweather’s consistency will allow Pacquiao to take more chances and challenge the stamina of the lb. for lb. king.
Manny Pacquiao has a style that is best described as a stalking brawler. He is not consistent. In fact, the only thing he is consistent about is the inconsistency of his jabs and combinations and their port of origin. His punches come from everywhere, with no real map to tell you when or where the next one is coming.
Juan Manuel Marquez needed four fights to figure Pacquiao out, and he was hopelessly losing in their last fight until he got the knock out.
What makes Manny’s style unique is his incredible stamina.
He will keep a tempo that will force a fighter to really dig in the early rounds. That is bad for Mayweather who would rather store his energy to finish strong on the back end of a fight.
Manny will be able to force Mayweather into a fight early, causing Mayweather to expel energy while Manny is still fresh. Mayweather like any fighter is open when he punches.
If Manny can make Mayweather fight early, the way he usually fights down the stretch, Manny Pacquiao will win this fight easily. In fact, it could be unanimous.
It is said that styles make fights. The diverse styles of these two fighters will make this fight. What will make it even more explosive, is the ground Floyd Mayweather will be forced to make up at the end of the fight, where he is usually the master.
He will have to do something he does not do, and that is take the fight to Manny in the championship rounds instead of sliding to an easy win. That will be the fight.
Some boxers are really fighting for something, like money or fame or even respect. Manny Pacquiao seems to be fighting for everything.
He isn’t a communist, he loves the money too, but he is the type of fighter that believes in honor in the ring. He will lay it all on the line. He is going into this fight to get a knock out, or get knocked out trying. That’s his style and that’s going to be the difference.
My pick, Manny Pacquiao 116-112 decision over Floyd Mayweather. Bet the house.
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